The Sunday Political Brunch – Nov. 4, 2012

My Election Day predictions!

(Providence, Rhode Island) – After nearly being blown off the New Bedford, Mass., Hurricane Barrier this week and into Clark’s Cove during Hurricane Sandy, I am happy to be heading into safer, drier territory – Election Day! It ought to be interesting. As always, I do election predictions (not endorsements), the Sunday before. Here we go!

Four More Years – By my tally, President Obama will be reelected with 277 Electoral College votes to 261 for Mitt Romney. The deciding states are Ohio and Wisconsin, both of which I am calling for Obama. But, if Romney wins either one (he doesn’t need both), then Romney wins the White House. I am giving Romney Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and North Carolina, all states Obama won in 2008. But it’s just not enough for the former Massachusetts Governor. Still, he may win the popular vote a la Gore v. Bush in 2000.

Senate Surprises – Democrats will keep the Senate, although I predict their margin will drop to 52-48. I always say the worst political wounds are self-inflicted – think Richard Nixon, Bill Clinton, Anthony Weiner and Mark Sanford, among the most famous cases. This year’s winners of the “Shoot Yourself in the Foot Award” go to Republican U.S. Senate candidates Todd Akin in Missouri and Richard Mourdock in Indiana. Without their ill-advised comments on rape, both probably would have won and the GOP would control the Senate. Again, they were their own worst enemy. In other races, I predict Republican Scott Brown will lose in Massachusetts to Democrat Elizabeth Warren; Republican Tommy Thompson loses in Wisconsin to Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin;  but Republican George Allen makes a comeback and wins Virginia, over Democrat Tom Kaine.

House Keeping – The Republicans will retain the U.S. House by a large margin and may even gain some Democratic seats. Here in Rhode Island, the 1st District – one of the most liberal in the nation – may go for Republican Col. Brendan Doherty, the retired head of the prestigious Rhode Island State Police. Why? Democratic Congressman David Cicilline remains haunted by the financial disaster in Providence at the end of his tenure as mayor. Remember, this is Congressman Patrick Kennedy’s old seat. Anytime Republicans can claim a so-called, “Kennedy Seat” in Congress, you know the incumbent party is in trouble.

On the Other Hand – But if my last statement is true, then why do I predict that Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.), will lose his seat – the one held for almost half a century by Ted Kennedy? Scott Brown is one of the most moderate-to-liberal Republicans in Congress. It’s really the only way a Republican can win in Massachusetts. When Brown won a special election in January 2010, it was the only race on the ballot, and he won over 70 percent of independent and even 24 percent of Democrats. But this time around, there are a whole host of races, including for the White House. President Obama will win Massachusetts in a landslide, and his coattails are likely to pull fellow Democrat Elizabeth Warren into the Senate. But Brown will be back. He’d have a good shot at becoming Governor when Gov. Deval Patrick terms out in 2014. Also, John Kerry may become Secretary of State in a second Obama term, so another special Senate election in Massachusetts is likely. Don’t throw those Scott Brown yard signs out just yet!

Special Assistance! – So what happened in the last week of the campaign? Hurricane Sandy helped President Obama. Disasters happen and the only person who can actually look presidential at such a time is the person who is actually president. It’s the luck of timing. The same goes for the unemployment numbers that came out Friday. Sure they ticked up to 7.9 percent, but that is below the “magic” number of 8.0. As I said several weeks ago in this column, if unemployment was 8.0 or higher, Obama loses. If it was 7.9 or lower, Obama wins. Again, it’s the luck of timing. The final factor is the “me too” effect. In the waning weeks, we’ve only had about 3 percent of voters still undecided. When push comes to shove at the very end, some undecideds just want to jump on the bandwagon of the person they believe will be the winner. It’s akin to picking the winning horse at the track, when the race is three-quarters over. Advantage Obama, especially in the swing states.

The Fallout – The world won’t end, folks. Every election I hear scores of people say they are leaving the country for Canada if their candidate loses. It never happens. Never! I’ve checked quadrennial immigration records for the past few decades, and no significant numbers of people ever leave the U.S. when the other side wins. It’s because they are still living in the greatest nation the world has ever known. To the winners, congratulations! To the losers, remember this: the two most productive governments in the past 50 years in terms of economic growth and relative peace were under Presidents Reagan and Clinton, both of whom had to deal with a Congress run by the other party. Sometimes, divided government can work well. Maybe it will again!

As always, if you have questions, opinions or disagreements, just click the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com. And if I wind up wrong on my predictions, roast me right here next Sunday! Cheers!

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Naome Lixes November 05, 2012 at 02:12 AM
"...two most productive governments in the past 50 years in terms of economic growth and relative peace were under Presidents Reagan and Clinton, both of whom had to deal with a Congress run by the other party. Sometimes, divided government can work well. Maybe it will again!" Both had honed their chops in the respective State Houses. Obama will be continually stymied by Senior Senators that resent him "jumping the line" without seasoning as a legislator. It's going to take a Democratic caucus willing to curtail entitlement spending and a GOP that will rein in the Tea Party "raucus". Until the House starts collaborating across the aisle (let's start with overturning Citizen's United, shall we?" to reaffirm the popular vote - it's likely to get uglier. I wonder if the Canadians reject anyone that shows up at immigration, seething? (You don't get to stay unless you know the French part of "O Canada".)
Robert Farebrother November 05, 2012 at 05:41 AM
Joe Sousa. November 05, 2012 at 10:34 AM
Great Song, Hope to hear more after Tuesday. America needs some one in the White house that understands how our country works . We are not a socialist republic and people will reject that philosophy. Even if it means force against a corrupt government. Our fore fathers planed ahead for just this type of action.
Naome Lixes November 05, 2012 at 11:02 AM
"We are not a socialist republic and people will reject that philosophy. Even if it means force against a corrupt government." Right - if you can't win by legitimate, democratic means - threaten violence. What part of your platform doesn't sound Fascist, Joe? Take a little drive North, the future doesn't look like us, does it? Take a little drive South toward the water, and you'll find the Romney faction. Much like the modern NHL, the future of the game is younger/faster/cheaper. PS - Hank Williams Sr. would kick Bocephus' drunken ass.
Joe Sousa. November 05, 2012 at 11:27 AM
Naome Lixes Move to the Soviet Union where they welcome your type. Oh Yea , they went broke . America is a capitalist society and other nations follow our example. Why would we want to become a socialist republic that lives under International rule ?
Naome Lixes November 05, 2012 at 11:54 AM
"America is a capitalist society and other nations follow our example." As you are so fond of reminding us, there's a $16 Trillion dollar debt and no plan to repay any time soon. Is that the lead you suggest we offer? Look to the more socialist nations (like Germany) and read their balance sheet. "Why would we want to become a socialist republic that lives under International rule ?" Go ahead, lay out how the UN will come in under Agenda 21 to take away our cars and scoots - how is that going to happen, exactly? It's the last bastion of pinheads that can't handle disagreement that we must long to live somewhere else. In fact, I love this country and want it back. First you threaten '2nd amendment solutions' which is insurrection (read Timothy McVeigh and Terry Nichols) then you suggest that the solution to America's current woes is to have educated skeptics leave. Look at what happened to China after Mao took over - that's YOUR America. I'll believe you have a clue when you start talking about repealing The Patriot act, Citizen's united and the requirement to name all Legislation for what it really does. Why would we want to have a chowderhead in local office? Thank you for frequently exposing yourself. Now put it away, too much fuss over so little.
Just Another Taxpayer November 05, 2012 at 12:52 PM
Joe the Soviet Union no longer exists.
Sharpie November 05, 2012 at 01:44 PM
Make a special note to watch the Free and Equal Election Debate between third party Presidential candidates, Gov. Gary Johnson (Libertarian) and Dr. Jill Stein (Green) to be aired tonight, Monday evening, Nov. 5th from 9:00 - 10:30 pm Eastern Time. Perform a worthwhile civic duty, and be certain to listen in on this historic debate so that you can make an informed decision on voting day. Third party candidates who will be on the ballot in most states deserve to be heard. http://freeandequal.org/?v=1
b kcaj November 05, 2012 at 02:26 PM
Not surprisingly, Joe Sousa calls for violence and anarchy against the government when Romney goes down to defeat tomorrow. What's Joe going to do?-Become another Ted Kaczynski? It surely would come as no surprise if he did.
English first November 05, 2012 at 05:56 PM
There really are no losers in these races. I give them credit for running for office. it is something I could never do.
Naome Lixes November 05, 2012 at 11:37 PM
Man, are you dense.
housewife in EG November 06, 2012 at 12:13 AM
It's our liberal teachers in the public schools that create people like Naome. Hope she take her socialist stance and leaves the country for her utopia, maybe Columbia would be a good place for her. People are sick of our non-presidential president who has the mentality of a third grade bully with all his name calling. He's gone tomorrow.
Naome Lixes November 06, 2012 at 12:20 AM
" People are sick of our non-presidential president who has the mentality of a third grade bully with all his name calling." Grow up, tinkerbell. "It's our liberal teachers in the public schools that create people like Naome." Actually, it's reading books and crossing the occasional bridge that makes people like me; educated and skeptical of dimwitted Fascists in training. "Hope she take her socialist stance and leaves the country for her utopia, maybe Columbia would be a good place for her." In the next administration, you will be required to prove citizenship and IQ above 100 in order to vote, drive a car and own a firearm. Better pack, Gertie.
housewife in EG November 06, 2012 at 12:26 AM
Just like Michell Obama, your not proud of the United States. hope you pack gertie
Naome Lixes November 06, 2012 at 02:12 AM
http://thingsmittromneysays.tumblr.com/ http://front.moveon.org/10-things-the-romney-campaign-doesnt-want-you-to-know-about-paul-ryan/ http://thinkprogress.org/romney-facts/?mobile=nc http://truth-out.org/buzzflash/commentary/item/11663-the-social-terrorist-vision-of-paul-ryan-and-ayn-rand-politics-of-the-anti-christ http://biblicalaaronc.blogspot.com/2012/08/666-antichrist-paul-ryan-exposed.html http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread875380/pg1 Here's an opinion - anyone that could consider Joe Sousa for a position on the Town Council has improbably low standards. I'm just one voter, and I think you're impenetrably lazy. That, and yer Ma dresses you funny. The tinfoil hat is a nice touch, though.
b kcaj November 06, 2012 at 02:14 AM
Come on Joe-Less than 12 hours before the polls open and you're still trying to post free political advertising, in a clear violation of Patch standards. You should pay the Patch at least $50,000 for all the political trash you've posted on this site-CHEAPSKATE!
Denise November 06, 2012 at 02:24 AM
Ryan, you asked for thoughts. Mr. Larkin is a clear choice for School Committee! Your other two choices are not candidates I would ever choose to represent our schools. Neither Ms Hollenbach nor Mr. Katz has ever stepped into one of our schools. They do not know anything about what we do or don't do yet both spout a considerable amount of rhetoric regarding what we do. Last year, here on Patch, I asked Ms. Hollenbach to explain what she knew about the specific initiatives/ programs we use in our schools. She replied it was "my job not hers". If you are going to state that you will bring all our schools to the "top 3 in 4 years "you better have a clear understanding of what is being done and a clear plan. She does not. Mr. Katz believes putting greater pressure on teachers to raise test scores is the way to go. Really? Has he not noticed that this is ALL we are focusing on? Ask either of them to be specific about what they will do and you will not get an answer. I asked Mr. Katz and I am still waiting. Ms. Hollenabch has been asked to explain specifically about the "programs" she'd add..no answer. What experience does she have that qualifies her to make programming decisions? These candidates will do nothing to improve our schools. Neither one has made a positive comment regarding our schools..not one. We are system consistently working hard to do better. In my opinion. Our district deserves better. That said, I respect your right to vote your choice...just my thoughts.
Ryanthegirl November 06, 2012 at 06:15 AM
@ Naome, grow a pair… up top or below depending on whether you are male or female. No person with a full time job, children and is involved in any community has the ability to look into EVERY link you post on a constant basis. P.S. you lost me a long time ago with factcheck (Annenburg). @ b jwhatever+ a bunch of letters including DA, DB, FIA. Before the deletion of the comment calling me a moron I should have thanked you for showing that you are less than the ignorant, redundant spewing, out of touch with the working class parent of school age children I gave you credit for, you know what "they" say f-up move-up are you running for president in 16
Ryanthegirl November 06, 2012 at 06:21 AM
@Denise… I am set on Katz (you know why) but Hollenbach, Thank you. Joe Souza, I could care less about his past, I was 9, if I were judged based on my middle/high school record I would be pissed. Change is not a four-letter word and term limits are not a bad thing. I am a firm believer that the union has no place in education. I would pay double taxes and double salaries if I had a choice to who, what and how the money was spent. Instead I get, you suck because you are blue or red. You know what my degree is so I need a budget report to the last penny. Neither party will give me that.
Ryanthegirl November 06, 2012 at 06:22 AM
Competition is reality and the best teachers should be nothing less than rewarded handsomely, not grouped together with a label and at minimum given the choice and respect to join a union or not. My pick for joe, coulter, pelletier, chabot, roderick, gerlach and lambert are all because the elephants in my bedroom are now in my sheets and the donkey's in my wallet have tried to make me feel bad about wanting our kids to be financially successful. Our town's school committee backed Cicilline for what reason? Is it because he is a democrat or is 0-10 record in Congress? That was for me the number one reason why I don't want to/will not vote for a person/group that chooses to back a color instead of a person. I had and still struggle on a daily basis with 4 learning disabilities and was the second child in MA to have a parent sue a town and win the cost of private school due to lack of available resources.
Ryanthegirl November 06, 2012 at 06:26 AM
I was labels SPED. Here is where I differ from most.What is best for kids labeled with ADD, ADHD etc, as I was? Make us mainstream kids, take a test on a federal level standardized by people that never struggled epidemically? If we as a town have 20% of kids that are given a label of learning disabled, not mentally challenged (insert other pc term) then just like real life that 20% should be in competition to better themselves. I failed in public school only because I was "mainstreamed" and not given an opportunity to challenge other students similar to myself. I will never forget in 7th grade my mother, single at the time, paid $1120 to have me re-tested because she was told I was going to be a student that just "falls through the cracks" (hence the lawsuit) and had a 155 IQ and again labeled... Really? Funny, my husband (gifted and talented, private high school only because a school committee member told my mother in law "if you what him to succeed, don't send him to THS") tells me you can't spell but you can amortize a mortgage in you head. I believe that students, teachers and taxpayers deserve options, not a standard grade/test given by the federal government. Teachers deserve the right to choose to pay dues or not. If I believe in a women's right to choose, a person's right to choose in whom they want to marry then how can I back a union that gives zero choice to you?
Ryanthegirl November 06, 2012 at 07:44 AM
I forgot Sally Black, whom will always get my vote. Yes, its personal.
Joe Sousa. November 06, 2012 at 09:25 AM
Joe Sousa for Town Council It's time to get things moving in the right direction
Naome Lixes November 06, 2012 at 11:56 AM
Let me get this straight - You don't have time to read background info - so who does that for you? You don't have time to consider the itty-bitty possibility that you're on a tangent - yet you can stay up into the wee hours to compose what amounts to a screed? "No person with a full time job, children and is involved in any community has the ability to look into EVERY link you post on a constant basis. P.S. you lost me a long time ago with factcheck (Annenburg)" Yet, you seem willing to hold forth, at every opportunity - daily - so long as "right thinking people" agree with you? If you feel your belittled by opposition, consider this - perhaps your position is tenuous and uninformed. My IQ was measured at 100, so you're smart enough to prove me wrong. You're just presumptuous - you seem to think you're always right, Canhão. If you come into a public forum and attempt to display your "gift" ( IQ 155!) you should anticipate both skepticism, and if you're arrogant - scorn. You're carrying a grudge, rtg - and you're out to make other kids pay. That's revenge, and that's a tribal value.
English first November 06, 2012 at 12:13 PM
Dear housewife in EG, It is spelled Michelle. The word you mean is you're. Hope needs a capital. Gertie needs a capital. You forgot your final period. Try getting an education.
English first November 06, 2012 at 12:19 PM
Who in the world cares who is on your voting list?
Naome Lixes November 06, 2012 at 12:27 PM
@English first - she does, so EVERYbody else must, right? "Welcome to our narcissist support group. Don't bother with name tags, we don't bother with reading labels...or facts...we don't care what you think, for that matter." "Mirrors and Ritalin are in the back."


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