(Providence, Rhode Island) – It’s that time of year with a political hodgepodge going on. I thought it might be fun, too, to take a look at the ballot just eleven months away that could change the shape of the U.S. Senate. But first, let’s get in the holiday spirit:
“It’s a Christmas Tree!” – The smallest state has had the
biggest December political controversy the past two years. Rhode Island Governor
Lincoln Chafee insisted on lighting a “holiday tree” his first two years in
office. That ignited a firestorm of counter protests and even alternative
Christmas tree lightings inside the State House. It made national news and a
lot of unflattering headlines. This year the Governor – who was quietly out of
state - asked the Secretary of State to light the state’s Christmas tree. The
controversy was doused, but was the damage already done? Earlier this year –
the former Republican Chafee, who was elected as an independent – switched to
Democrat. Three month’s later he declined to run for reelection. The “holiday
tree” controversy did him no favors.
“Election 2014” – While Governor (and former U.S. Senator
Chafee) chose to not run again, plenty of his old Senate colleagues are on the
ballot and control of the U.S. Senate hangs in the balance. Right now Democrats
(with two independents) hold a 55 to 45 majority over Republicans. But with the
Obamacare website meltdown still dominating the headlines, it’s sure to be a
major factor in the outcome of the Senate battle. Democrats are also defending more
Senate seats than Republicans, and that makes the odds of them losing control
even higher. Let’s run down some of the most interesting races to watch.
“Two-Timing Senator?” – A lot of Republicans are pinning
part of their hopes on former Massachusetts GOP Senator Scott Brown, who may
cross the border and run for Senate from New
Hampshire against incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen.
Brown owns a home in the Granite
State and spends a lot of
time there, but still may be accused of being a carpetbagger. Still, Shaheen
barely won last time, and is dropping in popularity, in part due to the
Obamacare mess. I bet Brown jumps in. I’m not sure how often someone has been
elected to the Senate from two different states, but former U.S. Senator James
Shields was elected from Illinois, Minnesota and Missouri.
He’s the only three-timer.
“The Name Game” – In politics a famous name can be a
blessing, or sometimes a curse. It never hurts to be a Kennedy, Bush or
Rockefeller. On the other hand, sometimes the public grows weary. In Louisiana, Democratic
U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu is vulnerable and is being targeted by Republicans.
It’s a solid red state so the GOP has a chance. Landrieu’s dad and brother both
served as Mayor of New Orleans. The latest Southern Media Opinion Research poll
has Landrieu ahead of two challengers, but with only 41 percent of the vote. She’s
“The Name Game, Part II” – In Arkansas, incumbent Democratic
Senator Mark Pryor is vulnerable, too. He is the son of former U.S. Senator and
Governor David Pryor. Like Louisiana, Arkansas has grown more
conservative over the years, and is a solidly red state in Presidential
elections. I am always skeptical of internal party polls, as they are often
self-serving, but a Republican poll shows that U.S. Rep. Tim Cotton (R-AR) leads
Democrat Pryor 45 to 41 percent. If nothing else, the race looks to be close.
“The Southern Strategy” – One of the trends you will see
over the next year is the Republican’s Southern strategy. They are trying to
take back Democrat seats in states that strongly lean Republican most of the
time, such as Louisiana and Arkansas. Add North Carolina to the list, where incumbent
Democrat Kay Hagan is vulnerable. Three recent polls had Hagen slightly ahead of various potential
Republican challengers. But a Public Policy Poll has Republican Dr. Greg
Brannon, leading Hagan by one point. For now, North Carolina is just too close to call.
“The Name Game, Part III” – Colorado used to be a traditionally Republican
state, but that has changed in recent election cycles. Color it purple,
perhaps. In any case, Democratic Senator Mark Udall is up for reelection, and
polls indicate it’s a dead heat with potential Republican challengers. He is
the son for former Congressman and Presidential candidate Mo Udall. His first
cousin is U.S. Senator Tim Udall (D-NM), son of former Interior Secretary Stuart
Udall. So the name recognition – and money that goes with it – is strong, but polls
show potential Republican challengers within just a few points of Udall.
“The Bottom Line” – Republicans need to pick up six seats to
take control of the Senate. There are open seats in Georgia,
and West Virginia.
Races in North Dakota and Alaska will also be competitive. Even Senate
Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is vulnerable for reelection. So, a
Senate GOP takeover is not a done deal, and will need a lot of stars to align. It
should be a fascinating year!
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