“The Sunday Political Brunch” -- July 20, 2014

Dr. Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter at WLNE-TV ABC6 Providence, RI and a Political Analyst for KGO Radio-AM 810, San Francisco.


(Providence, Rhode Island) – I was chatting on Facebook Saturday with my old Washington, DC news colleague, Bob Franken of CNN fame – I was at Cox DC back then. I mentioned that as of January 2015, I would start spending a fair amount of time in New Hampshire, getting ready for the 2016 Presidential election. Yes, that’s right, the campaign there will begin in earnest right after this November’s election. It got me to thinking, “What’s the strategy to victory for all of the big name candidates?” Let’s “brunch” on that this week: 

“Hillary Clinton” – Okay, people presume she has the nomination in the bag, which is a huge mistake. They said the same thing about her in 2008. So, lesson one is be humble and make no assumptions. Two, don’t try to portray yourself as “ordinary people” with voters, ala the “we were practically broke when we left the White House” story line. Instead, sell your experience for Heaven’s sake: First Lady eight years; U.S. Senator eight years; and, Secretary of State for four years. Experience and resumes impress lots of people. P.S. Neutralize you potential opponent and ask Gov. Martin O’Malley (D) Maryland to be your running mate early in the process. If not, he may run against you! 

“Jeb Bush” – Yes, like Hillary Clinton, you have a big family name. Don’t try to oversell it though. “Bush fatigue” is as dangerous as “Clinton fatigue” in different parts of this country. Your Vice Presidential pick is crucial. Don’t be Mitt Romney and pick another white male who looks pretty much just like you. You have to pick a woman, or a Hispanic, or – get this – how about both? Gov. Susana Martinez (R-NM) would be an excellent choice for Bush. She’s a woman (which helps neutralize some of the female vote for Hillary); she’s Latina, and can help bring swing states such as New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado back into their old GOP home. P.S. Jeb is fluent in Spanish; has a Latina wife; and, has multiracial children. Leverage that, Governor, and you could have the same job as your dad and brother. 

“Marco Rubio” – Okay, you are Latino and you can win Florida. That’s not enough. If the GOP had won New Hampshire, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida in 2012, Mitt Romney would have been President. Yes, it was only a four state margin (see map above). So, Rubio needs to pick Gov. John Kasich (R) Ohio to be his running mate. Rubio carries Florida; Kasich carries Ohio; together they carry Virginia; and, the combo is probably enough to draw a winning Hispanic margin in New Mexico, Colorado, or Nevada - so New Hampshire is moot. Here’s another plus. Kasich – like Dick Cheney and Joe Biden – is an old Washington hand. He was in the House 20 years and chaired the Budget Committee. When you elect a young, or “outsider” President such as Carter, Reagan, Bush II, Clinton, or Obama, the “Washington Insider” VP is crucial. 

“Chris Christie” – First, you must carry your home state of New Jersey. The first rule of Presidential politics is, “Thou shalt carry thy own state!” So, he’s won statewide twice, and, he needs to do it again. New Jersey’s 14 Electoral votes become crucial if the GOP can’t capture the 18 in Ohio. Beyond that, Christie needs to neutralize the non-white and female vote that may gravitate to Hillary Clinton. So, like Jeb Bush, he needs to pick Gov. Susana Martinez (R) New Mexico as his running mate.  

“Martin O’Malley” – Let’s just speculate that Hillary Clinton falters or chooses not to run. O’Malley is the go-to-guy among a lot of Democrats. He’s not well known outside of the political chattering classes, but he’s considered the potential “next big thing” ala Bill Clinton in 1988. If he’s the nominee, there will be considerable disappointment among female voters who wanted Hillary. So, he needs to pick a female Vice Presidential running mate. For geographic and gender balance he needs to pick Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) Minnesota, or Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) Michigan. 

“Joe Biden” – I consider the Vice President a long shot, but again, we’ve seen front runners falter before. As with O’Malley, if Biden is at the top of the ticket, he has to pick a competent female running mate to mitigate the disaffected Hillary voters. In addition to Sens. Klobuchar and Stabenow mentioned above, look for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, (D) New York, to be on a Biden VP short list. Or, if Wendy Davis, (D) Texas, pulls an upset in this year’s race for Governor, she’ll rocket to the top of peoples’ lists, too. 

“Mitt Romney” – The speculation this past week that Romney might take a third “bite at the apple” was a bit over the top, but he could. Nothing against Rep. Paul Ryan, (R) Wisconsin, but he was simply the wrong pick in 2012. Had Romney picked Sen. Marco Rubio, (R) Florida, he might be living in the White House today. If Romney is the 2016 nominee, how about Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, (R) Washington, the number four ranking Republican in the House leadership? She’s much more conservative than Romney, and could deliver the party’s right wing, which was always suspicious of the moderate Romney. 

“Rand Paul, Ron Paul, Ted Cruz, Scott Walker, et. al.” – If you are the nominee, then many of the above caveats for the Republican Party apply to you, too. Remember Ronald Reagan’s “Big Tent” philosophy? The GOP needs to get back to that. Some of the nation’s most pioneering females and Hispanics who’ve held high office were Republicans. You have prominent conservatives African Americans, too, in Dr. Ben Carson, Herman Cain and Thomas Sowell. The party needs to foster that kind of diversity without sacrificing its conservative ideals. Broaden and diversify your base under the “Big Tent” and you might just win back the White House. 

Who did I miss? Who would you like to see on the Presidential tickets in both parties? Let me know by clicking the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.  

© 2014, Mark Curtis Media, LLC. 

Photo courtesy: ABCNews.com